Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
